A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
